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Could Edwards have cost Obama an early victory?
What would the results from the early primaries be if former presidential candidate
John Edwards admitted he had a two-month affair in 2006?
I heard Chris Matthews sum it up on MSNBC.com that former Clinton Communication Director Howard Wolfson might have won Iowa instead of Obama had Edwards dropped out due to bad press of his affair. But, since Obama smoked Clinton in the caucuses, I am beyond convinced Obama would have maintained a victory in the first contest of the election season, and by a larger margin.
Besides, Howard Wolfson focused on the wrong contest. When I first heard the news of the Edwards affair, all I could focus on was the second primary, the decision maker… New Hampshire. You remember the one. Hillary wanted to claim the phrase that made former president Bill Clinton a rock star, “The Come-Back Kid.”
John Edwards, according to CNN’s election results, racked up 48,461 votes or 17% of the vote in New Hampshire on January 8th, 2008.
If you split the votes that John Edwards acquired back in the winter in a fifty-fifty, then that would mean 24,230 people would have voted for Clinton and 24,230 people would have voted Obama. Of course Clinton would have still squeezed out a small victory of 136,591 to Obama’s 129,112.
Here’s where it gets interesting, If Obama would have gotten a 60% to 40% stake of Edwards’ voters that would have resulted in Obama getting 29,209 votes, while Clinton would have the remaining 19,472 votes.
The Results of an Edwards-less primary would have been Obama 133,981votes to Clinton’s 131,723 votes. So, I am declaring the New Hampshire primary for Barrack Obama.
Why? Edwards was the “poverty” candidate. There was also an anti-Clinton voter demographic that may have chosen Edwards over Obama, but would have picked Obama had they no other choice.
Imagine, no come-back kid and no doubt that Obama would have been the presumptive nominee. No drawn out primary season, no Obama loss in Indiana and Pennsylvania, and finally no 20 million dollars in debt for the Clinton Campaign.
Check out my next blog on Edwards’ campaign contributions, and if split between Obama and Clinton would it have made any difference.
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